Space-Creating versus Dead Possession: An Off-Ball Possession-Quality Index for Broadcast Football

Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back.

Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back. Existing event-based possession-value frameworks (expected threat, VAEP, on-ball value) price on-ball actions but ignore the…