From Score Matrices to Football-Aware Match-State Simulation: An Auditable LLM Harness for Exact-Score Reranking

Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge.

Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge. Dynamic Poisson-family models estimate team strength, expected goals, and coherent score probabilities, but do not directly understand roles, tactical matchups, motivation, or how a…